Expected Value of a Hand - Texas Holdem
The term Expected Value of a poker hand refers to the expected worth of that hand played over time. Pocket Aces are a pre-flop favorite, but played in back to back hands their value can differ greatly. Played over and over again, you can get an idea of exactly what they are worth over time.
The best resource I've found for EV information is the expected value tables provided by PokerRoom.com. They have gathered data from starting hands played at their poker room, and the results are impacted by the actual play of the participants. These are not computer simulations, but rather real-world poker results that have been compiled and analyzed.
You can visit the poker room's site to see how EV varies noticeably with changes in table position.
The table we have posted shows EV in terms of "big bets". So, if you are playing at a $3/$6 holdem table, and are dealt pocket Kings, their EV is (1.67 x $6 big bet) = $10.02.
| Cards | EV | Count |
| AA | 2.32 | 550,632 | | KK | 1.67 | 551,878 | | QQ | 1.22 | 549,570 | | JJ | 0.86 | 550,948 | | AK s | 0.77 | 367,870 | | AQ s | 0.59 | 368,178 | | TT | 0.58 | 550,156 | | AK | 0.51 | 1,106,047 | | AJ s | 0.43 | 367,811 | | KQ s | 0.39 | 366,191 | | 99 | 0.38 | 552,062 | | AT s | 0.33 | 367,393 | | AQ | 0.31 | 1,101,249 | | KJ s | 0.29 | 365,921 | | 88 | 0.25 | 550,710 | | QJ s | 0.23 | 368,213 | | KT s | 0.20 | 368,086 | | AJ | 0.19 | 1,103,946 | | A9 s | 0.18 | 368,279 | | QT s | 0.17 | 365,398 | | KQ | 0.16 | 1,103,231 | | 77 | 0.16 | 553,492 | | JT s | 0.15 | 367,811 | | A8 s | 0.10 | 368,982 | | K9 s | 0.09 | 367,736 | | A7 s | 0.08 | 369,231 | | AT | 0.08 | 1,105,376 | | A5 s | 0.08 | 367,900 | | KJ | 0.07 | 1,105,604 | | 66 | 0.07 | 549,696 | | A4 s | 0.06 | 367,553 | | Q9 s | 0.06 | 367,923 | | T9 s | 0.05 | 367,750 | | J9 s | 0.04 | 369,223 | | QJ | 0.03 | 1,102,901 | | A6 s | 0.03 | 366,998 | | A3 s | 0.02 | 367,269 | | 55 | 0.02 | 550,840 | | K8 s | 0.01 | 369,893 | | KT | 0.01 | 1,103,705 | | 98 s | 0.00 | 368,190 | | T8 s | -0.00 | 366,732 | | K7 s | -0.00 | 367,647 | | A2 s | 0.00 | 366,466 | | QT | -0.02 | 1,106,012 | | Q8 s | -0.02 | 367,657 | | 87 s | -0.02 | 367,787 | | A9 | -0.03 | 1,105,684 | | J8 s | -0.03 | 367,615 | | 76 s | -0.03 | 367,110 | | JT | -0.03 | 1,102,233 | | 44 | -0.03 | 552,443 | | 97 s | -0.04 | 369,494 | | K6 s | -0.04 | 366,407 | | K4 s | -0.05 | 368,061 | | T7 s | -0.05 | 367,201 | | K5 s | -0.05 | 368,807 |
|  | | Cards | EV | Count |
| Q7 s | -0.06 | 367,512 | | 86 s | -0.07 | 367,805 | | A8 | -0.07 | 1,100,445 | | J7 s | -0.07 | 364,541 | | 33 | -0.07 | 551,586 | | K9 | -0.07 | 1,103,920 | | 65 s | -0.07 | 367,986 | | T9 | -0.08 | 1,103,441 | | 54 s | -0.08 | 367,333 | | Q6 s | -0.08 | 368,294 | | K3 s | -0.08 | 368,321 | | K2 s | -0.08 | 368,737 | | Q9 | -0.08 | 1,107,991 | | J9 | -0.08 | 1,102,303 | | 64 s | -0.09 | 369,101 | | T8 | -0.09 | 1,107,310 | | Q5 s | -0.09 | 369,538 | | 96 s | -0.09 | 369,159 | | 75 s | -0.09 | 369,303 | | 22 | -0.09 | 553,171 | | J8 | -0.10 | 1,104,552 | | 98 | -0.10 | 1,103,082 | | 97 | -0.10 | 1,104,506 | | A7 | -0.10 | 1,104,965 | | T7 | -0.10 | 1,103,171 | | Q4 s | -0.10 | 368,471 | | J4 s | -0.11 | 366,906 | | 74 s | -0.11 | 369,655 | | K8 | -0.11 | 1,106,439 | | 86 | -0.11 | 1,105,837 | | 53 s | -0.11 | 366,243 | | K7 | -0.11 | 1,101,741 | | 85 s | -0.11 | 367,456 | | 63 s | -0.11 | 365,732 | | J6 s | -0.11 | 366,958 | | 85 | -0.11 | 1,106,745 | | T6 s | -0.11 | 368,322 | | 76 | -0.11 | 1,105,164 | | Q8 | -0.11 | 1,106,395 | | J5 s | -0.11 | 368,354 | | T6 | -0.11 | 1,101,165 | | Q3 s | -0.11 | 367,390 | | 75 | -0.11 | 1,105,498 | | A5 | -0.12 | 1,104,643 | | Q7 | -0.12 | 1,104,331 | | T5 | -0.12 | 1,107,072 | | 87 | -0.12 | 1,103,007 | | 83 | -0.12 | 1,106,532 | | 65 | -0.12 | 1,104,700 | | Q2 s | -0.12 | 368,355 | | 94 | -0.12 | 1,105,939 | | 74 | -0.12 | 1,101,551 | | A4 | -0.12 | 1,104,763 | | T4 | -0.12 | 1,106,174 | | 82 | -0.12 | 1,101,727 | | 64 | -0.12 | 1,101,489 | | 42 | -0.12 | 1,101,359 |
|  | | Cards | EV | Count |
| J7 | -0.12 | 1,105,297 | | 93 | -0.12 | 1,104,310 | | 73 | -0.12 | 1,105,302 | | 53 | -0.12 | 1,105,251 | | T3 | -0.12 | 1,102,033 | | 63 | -0.12 | 1,103,080 | | K6 | -0.12 | 1,103,401 | | J6 | -0.12 | 1,104,704 | | 96 | -0.12 | 1,105,092 | | 92 | -0.12 | 1,107,579 | | 72 | -0.12 | 1,104,285 | | 52 | -0.12 | 1,107,694 | | A6 | -0.12 | 1,105,125 | | T2 | -0.12 | 1,105,503 | | 95 s | -0.12 | 368,015 | | 84 | -0.12 | 1,104,856 | | 62 | -0.12 | 1,107,570 | | T5 s | -0.12 | 368,030 | | 95 | -0.12 | 1,102,769 | | Q3 | -0.13 | 1,106,081 | | 43 | -0.13 | 1,106,577 | | K4 | -0.13 | 1,104,957 | | J4 | -0.13 | 1,106,654 | | T4 s | -0.13 | 370,150 | | 54 | -0.13 | 1,104,529 | | Q6 | -0.13 | 1,105,012 | | Q2 | -0.13 | 1,104,650 | | J3 s | -0.13 | 368,616 | | J3 | -0.13 | 1,104,433 | | T3 s | -0.13 | 369,188 | | A3 | -0.13 | 1,105,722 | | Q5 | -0.13 | 1,106,053 | | J2 | -0.13 | 1,103,759 | | 84 s | -0.13 | 368,694 | | Q4 | -0.13 | 1,103,742 | | K5 | -0.13 | 1,105,669 | | J5 | -0.13 | 1,105,844 | | 43 s | -0.13 | 368,525 | | 82 s | -0.14 | 368,039 | | 42 s | -0.14 | 369,977 | | 93 s | -0.14 | 368,278 | | 73 s | -0.14 | 368,640 | | K3 | -0.14 | 1,104,211 | | J2 s | -0.14 | 367,858 | | 92 s | -0.14 | 367,488 | | 52 s | -0.14 | 367,876 | | K2 | -0.14 | 1,106,898 | | T2 s | -0.14 | 369,195 | | 62 s | -0.14 | 367,206 | | 32 | -0.14 | 1,103,272 | | 94 s | -0.15 | 367,617 | | 72 s | -0.15 | 368,039 | | A2 | -0.15 | 1,106,519 | | 83 s | -0.15 | 368,814 | | 32 s | -0.16 | 369,182 |
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It is certainly possible that tracking your playing habits, once a sufficient amount of hands are played, will result in a table unlike the one we've posted, or the others found at PokerRoom.com. Style of play, and game type (no limit, pot limit, fixed limit, tournament) will have an affect on the value of hands as well.
But, since these statistics are based on 122,031,244 pair of pocket cards dealt
at the real money tables, they are a solid place to begin inquiries into the expected value of a texas holdem hand.   |